Traffic crashes prediction of states in Nigeria using time series analysis
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Akure, Nigeria.
2Research Officer, Tetragrammaton Construction Company Limited, Ibadan, Nigeria.
Research Article
Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Advances, 2020, 03(01), 015-026.
Article DOI: 10.30574/gjeta.2020.3.1.0024
Publication history:
Received on 15 April 2020; revised on 22 April 2020; accepted on 23 April 2020
Abstract:
Death and injuries associated with traffic crashes is now acknowledged to be a general phenomenon in Nigeria. The major problem for most communities in developing countries is road accident which requires serious attention in searching for preventive measures to minimize it. This study is aimed at using time series analysis to predict the number of crashes for years 2016-2018, taking Yobe, Katsina, Abia and Ogun states as case studies. The available 1999-2018 crash data were sourced from the Federal Roads Safety Corps which was used for forecasting and 2016-2018 data for validating. The three forecasting models using time series analysis for MINITAB software (that is, quadratic, growth and linear) were used. The choice of a model was made from the computed data and compared with the actual data. It was recommended that policies be made to control, enforce, regulate and educate drivers by relevant government agencies such as the Federal Road Safety Corps. Increased efforts by relevant government agencies in the provision of road infrastructures with a view to reducing traffic crashes in the cities were also recommended.
Keywords:
Traffic crash; MINITAB software; Quadratic model; Growth model; Linear model.
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Copyright © 2020 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Liscense 4.0